Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. 2013; Irannezhad et al. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. 2013; Pachauri et al. 2013). 2015 . The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. 2013). Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. 2005). This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). 2015). Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. In line with Rashid et al. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. **10% level of significance. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. What causes climate change? 2017a, 2017b). Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. 2014). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. 2012). Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. 2014). The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. 5.3.1. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. The magnitude of the decreasing trend was found to be 0.06 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station, 0.05 mm/year and 8.80% at SD station, 0.11 mm/year and 12.70% at HG station, 0.13 mm/year and 29.00% change at SH station, 0.19 mm/year and 53.00% at DB station, 0.19 mm/year and 35.00% and 0.20 mm/year and 56.40% change at DBS station. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. 2016). 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). 2015; Pingale et al. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. ; ed. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. 2016). The convergence of Northeast Trade winds and the Equatorial Westerlies forms theITCZ, which is a low-pressure zone.The inter-annual oscillation of the surface position of theITCZ causes a variation in the Wind flow patterns over Ethiopia and the Horn. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. 5.3.2. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Observed Data After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes.
Auburn Football Tv Schedule, Varian Medical Systems Investor Relations, Visd Pay Schedule 2020 2021, Nassau County Jail Inmate Release, Antonio Brown High School Gpa, Articles D